Crisis Prevention and Recovery
Natural Disasters in the Pacific
The Pacific is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world:
- Natural disasters have affected more than 3.4 million people and caused 1,747 fatalities (excluding PNG) in the Pacific Islands region since 1950. In some countries more than 40% of the population is affected during a typical disaster year e.g. Tonga and Samoa. The most prevalent disasters are cyclones accounting for 76% of reported disasters between 1950–2004, followed by earthquakes, droughts and floods.
- Whilst the number of people affected by disasters is relatively small compared to other regions, the scale of social and economic impacts is substantial. During the 1990s, the cost of disasters amounted to USD2.8 billion (in real 2004 value) and result in chronic shocks to economies averaging 2-7% of GDP in both disaster and non-disaster years.
- In addition, high exposure to climate risks and limited adaptive capacity make Pacific Island Countries particularly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise. Average temperatures are expected to rise in the region by between 1.0 and 3.1ￚC, and sea level by between 9 and 90 centimeters by the end of the century.
- The impacts are particularly severe in low-lying atolls. For instance, 18-80% of North Tarawa in Kiribati could experience inundation by 2050 without any adaptation measures.
- Climate change can also affect high level islands, with as much as a 100 % increase in cyclone related damages, a 20–30% increase in the epidemic potential of dengue fever, and a 9–15% decline in major crop yields.
